08/04 Japan's exports expected to drop by 0.5%-1.6% in 2011 due to quake: WTO

TOKYO (Kyodo) -- Japan's exports are expected to fall between 0.5 and 1.6 percent in terms of volume in 2011 due to spreading effects of the March 11 devastating earthquake and ensuing tsunami, the World Trade Organization said in a report Thursday.

The WTO said, "Damage to public infrastructure, such as roads, bridges, railways, and telecommunications systems, can cause disruptions to the export supply chain."

Japanese imports are, however, projected to increase between 0.4 and 1.3 percent this year as "the required materials, technology or skills (for reconstruction) may need to come from abroad," the WTO said.

The WTO said global exports surged 14.5 percent in 2010 in terms of volume, rebounding to levels seen just before the September 2008 outbreak of the world financial crisis, and are expected to grow a further 6.5 percent in 2011.

The figure for 2010 marked the highest rise since comparable data became available in 1950. The rise follows a 12 percent slump in 2009.

"Considering the depressed level of world output in 2009, growth in this range or higher would not have been surprising in 2010," the WTO said.

However, the winding down of stimulus measures and fiscal retrenchment in some countries, coupled with high oil prices and persistent unemployment in developing countries "combined to make trade and output grow more slowly than they might otherwise have done," the WTO said.

Growth could also be hampered this year because of rising food and commodity prices and unrest in oil-exporting countries, the WTO said.

In 2010, Japan's exports surged 27.5 percent in volume terms, compared with a 24.8 percent fall in 2009.

Exports rose 28.4 percent in China in 2010, 15.4 percent in the United States and 11.4 percent in the European Union.

Imports, on the other hand, grew by 10 percent in Japan in 2010, 22.1 percent in China, 14.8 percent in the United States and 9.2 percent in the European Union.

In value terms, China kept its position as the world's top exporter, shipping some $1,578 billion in merchandise goods, or nearly 10 percent of world exports, followed by the United States at $1,278 billion, Germany at $1,269 billion and Japan at $770 billion.

(Mainichi Japan) April 8, 2011