Tuesday, May 3, 2011

03/05 News Analysis: Bin Laden's death may weaken al-Qaida

English.news.cn 2011-05-03 05:04:12
by Xinhua writer Li Laifang

CAIRO, May 2 (Xinhua) -- The death of al-Qaida leader Osama bin Laden has prompted some Egyptian analysts to believe the terrorist network, a target of global anti-terrorism efforts, may weaken in the long run despite an expected possible increase of revengeful attacks in the near future.

"Bin Laden's death is definitely a great loss to al-Qaida," Mustafa Saif, a professor of political science at Cairo University, told Xinhua.

"To choose a new leader with the same financial, leadership and operational abilities as bin Laden will not be an easy thing," he said.

Symbolically, its branches in Yemen, Iraq and Afghanistan might suffer from his death and they need to take some time to reorganize themselves, according to the analyst.

Bin Laden, believed as the mastermind of the Sept. 11 attacks which killed about 3,000 people on the U.S. soil, was killed in a pre-dawn U.S. special force raid on his compound in Pakistani city of Abbottabad near the capital Islamabad.

Bin Laden had been the leader of al-Qaida for years. "His death does not mean terrorism will disappear tomorrow," said Saif.

There is a high possibility of revenge by its branches to make up for his death, he said. "They would convey a message to the international community that al-Qaida does not belong to only bin Laden himself, it still exists."

The network will not be as strong as it used to be and who replaces him will determine its future, Saif said.

Abdel Monem Ali, a political analyst with Egypt's Al-Ahram newspaper, told Xinhua that he was not much surprised at the news of bin Laden's death as he had expected he would be caught one day or another.

Ali said bin Laden was a much talented terrorist with high organizational skills and capabilities of inspiring suicide attacks.

But in recent years, he failed to change the things on the ground. Rather, he caused the occupation of Afghanistan, he said.

In recent movements in some Middle East countries, like Tunisia and Egypt, youth groups succeeded to bring about changes without much bloodshed, this would change the mindset of a lot of people, he said.

Egypt also suffered a lot of terrorist attacks in parts of the country like Sinai over the past decade. People will feel some sort of relief as this monster was gone, he added.

His followers will gradually lose faith as time goes by because of their disillusionment of bin Ladin's way of doing things, he was no longer a legendary and untouchable person, he said.

Terrorism remains a serious threat to global security as various groups resort to attacks to achieve their own purposes. Terrorism, separatism and extremism have not stopped their plans in some regions.

The killing of bin Laden might help to put a closure for the thousands of families who lost their loved ones to al-Qaida and represents a major symbolic victory for governments waging so- called "war on terror", said Khaled Hamza, chief editor of the website of Egypt's Muslim Brotherhood.

However, it will not put an end the ideology of terror and violence in the world unless its real reasons are addressed," said Khaled in an article.

Editor: yan

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