Saturday, April 23, 2011

23/04 BOJ to lower economic growth outlook due to quake

2011/04/23

The Bank of Japan will likely lower its outlook for Japan's economic growth in fiscal 2011 because a temporary slowdown appears inevitable following the Great East Japan Earthquake.

The BOJ's current projection for real GDP growth is 1.6 percent year on year. But the dominant view within the central bank is that the damage caused by the devastating earthquake and tsunami will take a toll on production, consumer spending and exports.

The revised projected growth, which will still remain in positive territory, is expected to appear in the BOJ's Outlook for Economic Activity and Prices (Outlook Report) to be endorsed at a monetary policy meeting on April 28.

The central bank releases projections for real gross domestic product and the consumer price index (excluding perishable food items) in its biannual reports released in April and October.

The BOJ is expected to revise upward its outlook for CPI to reflect soaring oil prices.

The projected growth rate for real GDP in fiscal 2012 will likely be raised from the current 2.0 percent on expectations a recovery will start in the second half of 2011.

Following the March 11 earthquake, the BOJ has further eased its monetary policy and taken other measures to help the economy.

No additional easing is expected on April 28 because a majority of opinions recommend verifying the impact of the earlier measures.

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