Sunday, February 5, 2012
Abduction of Chinese workers in Sudan stirs criticism of Beijing
Saturday, April 23, 2011
21/04 リビア介入―「人道のため」忘れるな
英米仏を中心とする多国籍軍がリビア政府軍を攻撃して1カ月になる。反体制派への報復・虐殺を阻止するための人道的介入のはずだったが、その限界が見えてきた。いったん勢いづいた反体制派に対し、政府軍が巻き返している。
西部にある第3の都市ミスラタは、2月末から政府軍に包囲されている。無差別砲撃や狙撃で連日、多くの犠牲者が出ており、水や食糧も不足している。狙撃兵が市街にひそみ、外出もままならないという。「このままでは皆殺しにされる」という声は痛ましい。
多国籍軍を指揮する北大西洋条約機構(NATO)は、政府軍の戦力の約3割を破壊したと発表した。だが、反体制派の部隊への誤爆も相次ぎ、首都トリポリへの空爆で市民が巻き添えになったという情報もある。
戦闘が長期化するほど、人道危機が深まる。政府軍が攻勢をかければ、阻止しようと多国籍軍も爆撃をエスカレートさせる。この悪循環を断ち切らなくてはならない。
行き詰まりをうけ、英国は軍事顧問団を反体制派の拠点ベンガジに派遣する方針だ。連絡調整や後方支援にあたり、直接の軍事作戦や訓練にはかかわらない、としている。
軍事介入を認めた国連安全保障理事会の決議は「外国軍によるリビア占領はいかなる形でも除外する」として、地上軍の派遣を禁じている。顧問団は直接には戦闘に加わらぬというが、当初の決議の枠を超えて内戦にてこ入れを図るなら、安全保障理事会の新たな決議が必要だ。
なし崩しに軍事行動が変質すれば、正統性を欠いたイラク戦争の二の舞いになりかねない。
Sunday, April 10, 2011
29/03 Halt to rebel advance creates Libyan divide
The current fighting in central Libya could not have turned out better for Col Muammar Gaddafi and his supporters.
At the very moment when Libya's fate is being discussed in London, his forces are consolidating their control over the western half of the country up to and beyond Sirte.
A senior official close to Col Gaddafi whom I have been speaking to said he thought the government here could accept that Libya was now irrevocably separated into two parts.
After a ceasefire, he said, the two sides could get down to negotiations and work out a deal, which would have to include the division of oil revenues.
All this will probably turn out to be much too optimistic, but it reflects a sense of genuine relief here that the rebels are no longer threatening Sirte and the west.
There is a hidden fault-line in the centre of the country which seems to separate Col Gaddafi's Libya from rebel-held Libya.
On the western side he is more popular than he is hated; on the eastern side it is the other way round.
Different planetAgain and again the government here has warned that the rebels are al-Qaeda volunteers, and that the West is wilfully ignoring this.
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Libyan officialThey will see in the end that we have been right all along”
Having reported extensively on the rebels in the past month, I can say with some confidence that there is very little sign of Islamic fundamentalism among them.
But intelligence had shown "flickers" of al-Qaeda or Hezbollah presence, Nato's supreme commander, US Adm James Stavridis said on Tuesday, giving evidence in Washington.
This too has been received with amusement and pleasure here.
"They will see in the end that we have been right all along," the official I spoke to said.
From the vantage point of Tripoli, a good deal of what is happening at the London conference seems far removed from the reality on the ground here.
While the various leaders discuss whether Col Gaddafi should be sent to the International Criminal Court, or encouraged to go to some unnamed country in Africa, officials here are certain that neither option is remotely possible.
'He will never leave Libya,' the official I spoke to said. He meant, Colonel Gaddafi will never leave the country alive.
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Friday, April 8, 2011
01/04 Libyan rebels look to compete with Gaddafi through oil
1 April 2011 Last updated at 07:24 GMT
Libyan rebels look to compete with Gaddafi through oil
By Aidan LewisBBC NewsSince Libya's uprising began in February, the north of the country has become a battlefield and the production of oil - which generated most of the country's income - has slowed dramatically.
In the west, Col Muammar Gaddafi is thought to be using huge reserves of cash, and possibly gold, to pay those fighting to keep him in power.
In the east, rebels trying to topple his regime have appeared weak in comparison, relying on the UN-backed international military mission to make gains.
They want to shore up their position by exporting oil, which would potentially give them billions of dollars to buy supplies and arms, and bolster their credibility as a future government.
The rebels say they are already producing up to 130,000 barrels a day and hope to raise this to 300,000 barrels in coming weeks. They say damage to oil infrastructure has been limited.
But they still face big challenges.
International companies have pulled out staff while retaining rights over the exploitation of oil, the security situation remains unstable, and Libya's oil industry is subject to international sanctions.
Help for rebelsCol Gaddafi has framed Western intervention as an oil grab and made overtures to potential buyers in China and India. He has threatened to sue any oil company that does business with the rebels.
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John HamiltonAnalystAllowing Agoco to trade independently is absolutely essential not only from a strategic but also from a humanitarian point of view”
The rebels "are ready with the infrastructure, they've got people in the fields, at the terminals, there are a lot of people there who know what they're doing", says John Hamilton, a Libya expert at British risk analysis firm Cross-Border Information.
"But they need the financial structure in place. That's something they're working to put in place but they need international co-operation to achieve."
There are signs that this co-operation may be arriving.
US and UN officials have said sanctions do not apply to rebel oil sales - even though the US listed the rebel-controlled Arabian Gulf Oil Company (Agoco) as one of those targeted.
Qatar has also offered to assist the rebels in selling oil, and may be able to help them avoid difficulties over ownership rights, according to Greg Priddy, an oil analyst with Eurasia Group consultancy.
But Mr Priddy said eastern Libya needed 100,000 barrels of oil a day just for its own use, and it would take some time before rebels could start earning large sums from exports. "It's not something that's going to happen in the next couple of months," he said.
Before the conflict began, Libya was producing 1.6 million barrels a day, accounting for about 2% of world output. Some 70% of the oil comes from the east.
Libya holds Africa's largest crude oil reserves, and its oil, most of which was being sold to Europe, is especially valued because of its light, low-sulphur quality.
Cash and goldThe International Energy Agency said that by mid-March, Libyan oil production had "slowed to a trickle", and that exports could be off the market for many months.
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Ibrahim DabashiLibyan defector[Gaddafi's reserves] are being used for financing the recruitment of mercenaries, for buying armaments, and for financing the war”
With an economy that is heavily dependent on oil, the resumption of oil sales could become more important as the conflict drags on.
"My personal view is that allowing Agoco to trade independently is absolutely essential not only from a strategic but also from a humanitarian point of view, and Libya is in serious need of resources to support the people there and allow life to go on," says Mr Hamilton.
"The east needs to be ready in a sense to come to the aid of the west when Gaddafi goes."
So far, Col Gaddafi has shown no sign of going, but part of the international plan for wearing him down involves cutting him off from assets and cash held abroad and future oil revenues.
This could take time, partly because the Libyan leader is said to have built up a huge reserve of funds that he is now drawing on.
The International Monetary Fund has estimated the value of Libya's gold reserves at $6bn (£4bn). And Ibrahim Dabbashi, the Libyan deputy representative to the UN who has defected to the rebels, says the cash reserves, which would be easier to use for direct payments, are worth "tens of billions".
He says it was widely believed among senior Libyan officials that a stash of this money and gold was moved to the Libyan south in shipping containers during the 1990s.
"Now we know clearly that these amounts are being used for financing the recruitment of mercenaries, for buying armaments, and for financing the war," Mr Dabbashi said.
Gaddafi handoutsIt is not known how fast Col Gaddafi might be getting through his funds, but he has certainly been displaying new levels of largesse.
Early on in the rebellion his government gave away 500 dinars ($400; £250) to every family, and said it would raise state salaries by up to 150%.
Some loyalists in Tripoli were given as much as 17,000 dinars, a new car and a weapon.
And foreign mercenaries, of whom there are thousands, were reportedly being paid as much as $10,000 to sign on, with a daily wage of up to $1,000.
In one sign that it was under pressure the Libyan central bank has begun recirculating old, large banknotes.
Fuel shortages have also been reported, though Mr Priddy said that as long as Col Gaddafi retained control of the Azzawiya refinery, he was likely to have enough petrol for military operations.
He said that in the east, the rebels should have enough fuel if they could retain control of the country's other big refinery, at Ras Lanuf.
A rebel source in the eastern port of Tobruk confirmed that the rebels had enough fuel, but said they could do with more cash. He said they were negotiating with British officials to take possession of hundreds of millions of Libyan dinars printed in the UK.
With international backing and the prospect of selling oil, the rebels are confident they have the momentum on their side, even if Col Gaddafi is able to hang on in the longer term.
In the shorter term, the main hope remains that the Gaddafi regime will crumble from within.
"It would have to be a combination of the military pressure that's now being exerted and sanctions, and the impact that has on the people around Gaddafi - providing them with incentives and pressuring them to move over to the rebels or desert, or leave the country," says Wolfram Lacher, a Libya expert at the German Institute for International and Security Affairs.
"That's the only real scenario in which I can see Gaddafi's demise in the short term."
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