I wrote that Chubu Electric Power Co. should shut down its Hamaoka Nuclear Power Plant in my column on April 18. With no sign that such a thing was about to happen, however, I'd been feeling the need to issue another wake-up call. I then stumbled upon the opportunity to learn a few things from Katsuto Uchihashi, an economic expert who has long been blowing the whistle on nuclear energy.
A former Kobe Shimbun economics reporter who has been a freelance journalist for the past 44 years, 78-year-old Uchihashi has a reputation for his razor-sharp critique of Japan's misplaced sense of confidence as an economic and technological power, and the alienation spawned by contemporary capitalism. He is virtually a regular on the NHK current affairs TV program, "Close-up Gendai," having been on the show more often than any other commentator.
In 1984, five years after the Three Mile Island accident in the U.S., Uchihashi published the book "Nihon enerugi senso no genba" (At the scene of the Japanese energy war), based on a series he'd written in the weekly magazine Shukan Gendai. There is no record available on how widely the book was read, but it was published again in paperback under the title "Genpatsu e no keisho" (A warning on nuclear power) in 1986, soon after the Chernobyl nuclear disaster in the Soviet Union. It sold 53,000 copies.
In the subsequent 20-year period, however, during which society's focus turned to stopping global warming and hopes for a nuclear-industry revival -- dubbed "the nuclear renaissance" -- Uchihashi's efforts were all but forgotten.
Then last week, just over a month after the massive earthquake and tsunami that struck northeastern Japan crippled a nuclear power plant in Fukushima Prefecture, a partially reprinted edition of the book, renamed "Nihon no genpatsu, doko de machigaetanoka" (Where did Japanese nuclear energy policy go wrong?), was released. Starting with coverage of the crisis in Fukushima and closing with the argument that the nation is headed to ruin if things continue to go on as they have, the book has the ring of a prophetic text.
Uchihashi says that the "safety myth" of nuclear energy that the Japanese public has been fed for years has no basis. The pros and cons of nuclear energy have never been put up to nationwide public debate via the Diet or the media. The issue has been governed by an economic structure whose purpose is the relentless pursuit of profit, and the very parties who should be challenging questionable claims -- including academics and the media -- are knee deep in this web of interests and profit. It is this reality, Uchihashi declares, that was exposed by the March 11 disaster.
The public is divided on whether nuclear power plants should be preserved and expanded, or scaled back and abolished. According to a Mainichi public opinion poll published in the April 18 morning issue, 40 percent of respondents said that the nation's dependence on nuclear power was unavoidable, while 41 percent said the number of nuclear power plants should cut back, and 13 percent said such plants should be abolished altogether. According to an Asahi Shimbun poll published on the same day, which asked respondents what they think should be done with nuclear power plants, 5 percent said that their numbers should increase, 51 percent said the current number should be maintained, 30 percent said they should be scaled back, and 11 percent said they should be eliminated entirely.
Japan has been split in two, into a Japan whose people seek continued economic growth and prosperity grounded in nuclear dependence, and another Japan whose people are convinced of the need to depart from that model once and for all.
It is the government's role to bridge that divide and coordinate diverging views, but it lacks the knowledge and wisdom needed for a debate that cuts to the crux of national policy. Understandably, the government is currently overwhelmed by the pressing task of bringing the Fukushima plant under control and rebuilding the country's quake- and tsunami-ravaged northeast, but that doesn't mean we can ignore the possibility that another massive earthquake will hit Japan, in the Tokyo metropolitan area or the Tokai region. Plus, is there any guarantee that such a temblor will be a magnitude-7 or thereabouts, as the Central Disaster Prevention Council has predicted?
In the final pages of "Genpatsu e no keisho," Uchihashi quotes a war historian's analysis of the reason for Japan's defeat in World War II.
"It originated in the bad habit -- unique to the Japanese government -- of lending its ears only to favorable information while ignoring the bad, but it also exposed the flaws of the Japanese decision-making process in which people gather but do not debate, debate but do not decide ... It takes a long time to make a decision, but once one is reached, it is not easily changed. Japan went about war -- which by nature entails constantly changing circumstances -- in this way, the worst way possible, and found itself lagging behind time and time again, which ultimately led to its demise ..."
Today, there are 54 nuclear reactors in Japan, accounting for 30 percent of the country's total energy supply. Is the government's plan to boost the nation's dependence on nuclear energy to 50 percent by adding 14 more reactors by 2030 a sound one? Let us hope for some bold debate. (By Takao Yamada, Expert Senior Writer)
(Mainichi Japan) April 26, 2011
風知草：「原発への警鐘」再び＝山田孝男
先週、浜岡原発を止めてもらいたいと書いたが、止まる気配はない。あらためて警鐘を鳴らさなければならない。そう考えていた折、３０年来、原発への警鐘を打ち鳴らし続けてきた経済評論家、内橋克人（かつと）（７８）の話を聞く機会を得た。
神戸新聞の経済記者からフリーに転じて４４年。モノづくりの現場を歩いた豊富な取材経験に基づき、経済技術大国・日本の過信と、現代資本主義の人間疎外を鋭く問う評論活動に定評がある。ＮＨＫテレビ「クローズアップ現代」で登場回数最多の常連解説者と言ったほうが通りがいいだろうか。
この人は米スリーマイル島原発事故（７９年）後の８４年、週刊現代の連載ルポをベースに講談社から「日本エネルギー戦争の現場」を出版した。どのくらい読まれたか記録がないが、旧ソ連のチェルノブイリ原発事故（８６年）直後に「原発への警鐘」と改題して文庫化。これは５万３０００部売れた。
やがて地球温暖化防止と原発ルネサンスの２０年が訪れ、労作は忘れられる。が、３・１１を経て先週、一部復刻版「日本の原発、どこで間違えたのか」（朝日新聞出版）が出た。福島第１原発ルポに始まり、このままでは亡国に至ると結ぶ原著には予言書の趣がある。
内橋はこう言っている。原発安全神話には根拠がない。原発推進の是非が国会やメディアを通じ、文字通り国民的議論に付されたためしがない。あくなき利益追求という経済構造に支配されているのが実態だ。その危うさを問うべき学者も、メディアも、利益構造の中に埋没している。その現実が、地震と津波であらわになったというのが内橋の確信である。
原発は維持拡大か、縮小廃止か。世論は割れている。毎日新聞の調査（１８日朝刊）では「原発依存は、やむを得ない」が４０％。「原発は減らすべきだ」が４１％で「全廃すべきだ」は１３％だった。「原発は今後どうしたらよいか」と聞いた朝日新聞の調査（同）では、「増やす」５％、「現状程度」５１％、「減らす」３０％、「やめる」１１％という分布になった。
日本は二つの領域に分断された。引き続き原発依存型の経済成長と繁栄を求める人々の日本と、今度という今度はそこから脱却しなければならないと考える人々の日本に。
この亀裂を埋め、まとめるのは政府の役割のはずだが、国策の根幹に斬り込む議論を寡聞にして知らない。福島の制御と三陸の復興に忙殺されているのは分かるが、首都圏や東海地方に第２撃の巨大地震が来ないと言えるか。来てもマグニチュード７程度という中央防災会議の想定内と言えるか。
内橋は、「原発への警鐘」の終盤で、第二次大戦の敗因を分析した戦争史家の文章から以下を引用している。
「有利な情報に耳を傾け、不利な情報は無視する（日本政府固有の）悪癖に由来するが、日本的な意思決定方式の欠陥を暴露したものであろう。会して議せず、議して決せず……。意思決定が遅く、一度決定すると容易に変更できない。変化の激しい戦争には最悪の方式で、常に手遅れを繰り返し、ついに命取りになった……」
日本には現在、５４基の原発があり、総電力供給量の３割を賄っている。２０３０年までに１４基増やし、原発依存率を５割にあげるという政府のエネルギー基本計画は妥当か。大胆な議論に期待する。（敬称略）（毎週月曜日掲載）
英訳毎日新聞 2011年4月25日 東京朝刊
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