Tuesday, April 26, 2011

26/04 Moves escalate to topple Kan after poor election results

photoPrime Minister Naoto Kan at an Upper House committee meeting on Monday (Satoru Iizuka)

Disappointing local election results have increased political activity to topple Prime Minister Naoto Kan as he tries to compile a plan to pull Japan out of the mess from the March 11 disaster.

Although a large majority of candidates in the municipal assembly elections held around Japan on April 24 ran as independents, candidates backed by the ruling Democratic Party of Japan were less successful than those backed by the opposition Liberal Democratic Party.

"It is an expression of the doubts held by many voters over whether the prime minister can truly implement measures to deal with the natural disasters," LDP chief Sadakazu Tanigaki told reporters after the election results became known.

At an April 25 session of the Upper House Audit and Oversight of Administration Committee, Kan admitted to the poor showing by DPJ candidates in the local elections.

"We have to seriously accept the fact that many candidates ended up with severe results," Kan said.

Hajime Ishii, the chairman of the DPJ Election Campaign Committee, tried to deflect suggestions that Kan should take responsibility for the local election results.

"Now is the time to bear down and unify the party as one," Ishii said.

But before the elections--and even preceding the March 11 Great East Japan Earthquake and tsunami-- discontent with Kan was already rife within the DPJ.

Anger toward Kan was already brewing after the DPJ fared poorly in prefectural gubernatorial and assembly elections held on April 10.

In the April 24 by-election in the No. 6 district of Aichi Prefecture--the only election with national ramifications--the LDP candidate, Hideki Niwa, won over four other candidates, including one pushed by a party set up by Nagoya Mayor Takashi Kawamura.

The DPJ could not even find a candidate to field in the by-election.

The LDP and New Komeito have indicated their willingness to approve the government's first supplementary budget, which is centered on immediate measures to deal with the aftermath of the earthquake and tsunami. It will likely be submitted to the Diet this week and passed as early as May 2.

LDP officials are considering submitting a no-confidence motion to the Lower House against the Kan Cabinet soon after the supplementary budget is passed, despite the insistence of some opposition members that the focus should remain on rebuilding the Tohoku region.

Kan met with Chief Cabinet Secretary Yukio Edano and DPJ Secretary-General Katsuya Okada on the evening of April 24 to exchange views on how to promote discussions between ruling and opposition parties on a proposed basic law for rebuilding after the disaster.

However, Kan may also have his hands full trying to keep his party together.

A number of heads of DPJ prefectural chapters have indicated their intention to resign, including Osaka's Shinji Tarutoko, a former DPJ Diet Affairs Committee chairman, Yorihisa Matsuno of Kumamoto, Tenzo Okumura of Shiga and Hirofumi Ryu of Kanagawa.

Although those officials said they were stepping down to take responsibility for the local election results in their respective prefectures, the mass resignations will also build up pressure on DPJ executives at the national level.

Younger DPJ lawmakers are also becoming increasingly fed up with Kan's handling of government affairs.

On April 19, about 50 first-term Lower House members, including those belonging to DPJ groups headed by political heavyweight Ichiro Ozawa, Finance Minister Yoshihiko Noda and former Foreign Minister Seiji Maehara, set up a study group on how the nation can overcome this major tragedy.

At an April 21 meeting of his group, Maehara told Shuji Inatomi, one of the study group's leaders, to freely do whatever he wanted.

The question among opposition party officials will be if they can accumulate enough anti-Kan votes within the DPJ for the no-confidence motion against the Kan Cabinet.

Ozawa and some of his DPJ allies have been meeting with a number of veteran LDP lawmakers.

For a no-confidence motion to pass the Lower House, about 80 members of the ruling parties will have to vote in favor.

LDP officials do not expect Kan to dissolve the Lower House when the government is still trying to push through legislation for the rebuilding process. So they are trying to push a no-confidence motion that forces Kan and his Cabinet to resign en masse.

They will likely time the submission of the no-confidence motion between the end of the series of national holidays in early May and June 22, the scheduled end of the current Diet session.

However, some LDP members are wary of engaging in a political struggle when no clear direction has been established for rebuilding after the disasters or for settling the crisis at the crippled Fukushima No. 1 nuclear power plant.

Such a struggle could turn public opinion against the opposition parties.

"The situation is not one in which a no-confidence motion or a censure motion against the prime minister can be submitted in the Upper House," said an executive of the LDP Upper House caucus who has been vehemently critical of Kan.

New Komeito officials also say the immediate attention should focus on the rebuilding process rather than on toppling the Cabinet.

"We will not let the LDP submit a no-confidence or censure motion anytime soon," a New Komeito executive said.

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