The Yomiuri Shimbun
The foundation of the government's nuclear power promotion policy has collapsed in the wake of the ongoing crisis at the Fukushima No. 1 nuclear power station, and will likely result in a review of its target for cutting greenhouse gas emissions.
"Needless to say, this great earthquake will have a considerable effect on various fields in this country," Chief Cabinet Secretary Yukio Edano said in a press conference Monday when asked whether a review of the emissions target is coming.
Expanding nuclear power was the foundation of achieving a 25 percent reduction in greenhouse gas emissions by 2020 from 1990 levels. But since the main source of electricity apart from nuclear is thermal power, the government will likely be forced to drastically review its policies on energy and fighting global warming.
Since nuclear power plants do not emit carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gases, nuclear power has been regarded as a star player in the fight against global warming.
According to the Economy, Trade and Industry Ministry, for every 4 percent increase in the operating rate of domestic nuclear power plants, greenhouse gas emissions decrease by 1 percent.
When Tokyo Electric Power Co.'s Kashiwazaki-Kariwa nuclear plant suspended operations after the Niigata Prefecture Chuetsu Offshore Earthquake in 2007, the operation rate of the nation's nuclear plants fell 9.2 points compared to the previous year to 60.7 percent.
This pushed greenhouse gas emissions up by 2.8 percent in 2007.
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Target already an 'illusion'
The government earlier planned to build 14 or more new nuclear plants by 2030 to achieve its target. It also eyed increasing the domestic operation rate to 90 percent, up 25 points from the current level.
But with the halting of 10 reactors including those at the Fukushima Nos. 1 and 2 plants due to last month's earthquake, output capacity declined 8.6 million kilowatts, or nearly 20 percent of the nation's entire nuclear power generation capacity.
TEPCO has said the Nos. 1 to 4 reactors at the No. 1 plant will be decommissioned, while Edano has suggested the plant's Nos. 5 and 6 reactors should also be scrapped.
With planned increases to safety at all nuclear power plants in the works, "The nuclear power target is already an illusion," a senior METI official said.
This view has been spreading among officials involved in nuclear policy, sources said.
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COP17 poses challenge
At the 17th Conference of the Parties of the U.N. Framework Convention of Climate Change (COP17), scheduled to be held this year in Durban, South Africa, the main item on the agenda is expected to be crafting a framework to succeed the Kyoto Protocol that expires next year.
The government will likely have no choice but to slash its 25 percent target after the Fukushima crisis is brought under control, but it could have a difficult time justifying such a move at COP 17 negotiating tables.
The government had planned to cut the amount of thermal power the nation relies on from 66 percent of the whole in 2007 to 25 percent by 2031.
This was to be compensated by a jump in nuclear power generation from 26 percent to 53 percent, and by increasing renewable energy such as solar, wind and hydropower from 8 percent to 21 percent.
Although Prime Minister Naoto Kan has said fresh discussions are needed on solar power and other clean energy sources, these technologies cannot be relied on as stable sources of power at present due to the fluctuations in the way they generate electricity.
This leaves thermal power generation, which uses oil, coal and liquefied natural gas, as the only viable alternative to nuclear power. TEPCO is already preparing to restart some old thermal power plants that were scheduled to be decommissioned.
Using older, less efficient power stations will push up CO2 emissions. "But we can't find any other way," a senior METI official said.
(Apr. 6, 2011)
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